New Hampshire Republican leader Andy Martin condemns remarks at Trump rally, announces a powerful new national conversation with the American People explaining why Ukraine deserves our full support
New Hampshire Republican leader Andy Martin condemns Donald
Trump for a rally Saturday at which Ted Nugent called the leader of Ukraine a “homosexual
weirdo,” please see Link #1 below. Trump previously called the war criminal and
mass murderer Putin a “genius,” please see Link #2 below.
“Donald Trump’s attacks on the people of Ukraine reflect Trump’s
increasingly unbalanced state of mind” says Andy Martin. “He is working hard to
lead Republicans to their fourth straight national election defeat under his
stewardship. His prediction of “death and destruction” if he is criminally charged
is another gift to the Democrats, please see Link #3 below.
“Trump should have been reelected in a landslide in 2020. He ran
against a zombie. Trump had a generally decent record of accomplishments. But
his inability to control his outbursts and his willingness to jeopardize our
nation’s stability for his own nefarious purposes today make him unelectable
and unacceptable.
“In 2022 I went to Ukraine to report on the war. I am preparing
to return to return to Ukraine to report again. I have begun a national
conversation with the American people to counteract Trump’s delusional and
malicious attacks on a nation, Ukraine, that was invaded by the most malignant leadership
since Germany invaded Poland in 1939. In my speech, I try to condense hundreds of
years of conflict into a succinct analysis. If you read my reporting from Ukraine
in 2002 (contrariancommentary.blogspot.com) you will see my analysis was 100%
correct. Interestingly, I am probably the last person accredited to MACV in
Vietnam many decades ago still actively reporting from around the world. My years
of experience are, I believe, are a benefit to you, the reader.
“If
allowed to continue, right-wing Republican attacks on our Ukraine policy will
benefit the world’s greatest threats, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping.
“I am by
no means giving a ‘blank check’ (popular word that) to the Biden Maladministration.
Biden’s incompetence has prolonged and exacerbated, and may have provoked, the war.
But Biden, not Trump, sits in the White House and we are stuck with him. He is temporarily
in control and will stay in control if Trump’s supporters continue to disgrace
the GOP. I endorse bipartisan support for Ukraine. That is the only sane way
forward.
“The following
package of remarks is from my national conversation. I hope you will find it
helpful in understanding the complexity of the situation and why only American
leadership can restore world peace.”
Please
note you will find gaps and white space in the brochure as it taken from a
printed format.
Link # 1 Ted Nugent
https://www.newsweek.com/ted-nugent-kicks-off-trump-rally-attacking-ukraines-zelensky-1790323
Link #2 Putin “genius”
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/23/trump-putin-ukraine-invasion-00010923
Link # 3 Trump “death and destruction”
https://nypost.com/2023/03/25/trumps-bizarre-behavior-a-gift-to-the-left-just-as-public-opinion-was-turning-on-bragg/
---
Andy Martin
UKRAINE
Andy Martin’s powerful new
national conversation with the
American People explaining why
Ukraine deserves our full support
© 2023
Synopsis
of Andy’s Speech
I. Historical backdrop
A.
Fox News Sunday – President of Finland - “hundreds of years”
B.
Holodomor – 1930 – Stalin murders millions
C.
Molotov/Ribbentrop Pact – partitioned Eastern Europe
D.
Babi Yar (Babyn Yar)– Kyiv 1941
II. Modern History of Ukraine
A.
Fall of the Soviet Union
B.
Budapest Memorandum (see: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/
2022/02/01/what-budapest-memorandum-means-us-ukraine/)
C.
Rise of Putin
D.
Russian 2014 invasion of Crimea, Donbas
III. 2022 Invasion
A.
No one expected invasion (except CIA, UK)
B.
NATO, EU, USA unprepared (except UK and Ukraine)
C.
Emergency reaction by Free World
D.
Weapons pipeline created (see my 2022 columns:
contrariancommentary.wordpress.com May 2022 archives)
IV. Future of the conflict
A.
Status of Russian “offensive” and terror campaign
B.
Status of Ukrainian forces
C.
How could USA trigger World War III?
D.
When will the conflict end? Maybe a surprise.
E.
My return to Ukraine: tentatively June-July, 2023
---
My Speech (originally delivered
March 14, 2023, then updated)
Welcome
to a conversation on American support for Ukraine. We’re going to explore four areas
of concern: (1) the history of Central Europe, which influences the current
conflict; (2) the history of Ukraine since the breakup of the Soviet Union in
1991; (3) an analysis of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and (4) my
analysis of where the war goes in the days ahead.
First,
the historical backdrop. The President of Finland was a guest on a recent
Fox News Sunday program. Shannon Bream asked him, “You have a history with
Russians?” “Hundreds of years,” the Finnish president replied. We need to understand
that hostility between the nations in Eastern Europe goes back literally hundreds
of years. And in my view, this hatred will extend hundreds of years into the future.
The hostility engendered today will not dissolve in a decade, probably not even
in the next century.
Russia
has a history of genocide in Ukraine. Ukrainians were not able to maintain
their freedom after World War I and fell under Russian/Soviet control. In the
1930’s, Russia imposed the Holodomor, the deliberate murder of millions of
Ukrainians who were starved to death to benefit Stalin’s supporters in the
Moscow regime. How would Canadians feel if millions were deliberately starved
to death to feed Americans? The deliberate murder of millions of Ukrainians by
the Soviet dictator Stalin remains a vivid memory.
Russia
and Germany triggered World War II. Although Germany attacked Poland in September,
1939, Germany was able to attack only because Russia and Germany had signed the
Molotov/Ribbentrop Pact that partitioned Europe in advance. Russia was an
enabler of World War II, though that nation later suffered greatly when Germany
reneged on the pact.
Germany
committed atrocities in Ukraine. The first mass extermination of World War II
took place in a neighborhood of Kyiv, Ukraine when 100,000 Jews and others were massacred
by German troops and collaborators at Babyn Yar (Babi Yar). Ukraine became a
killing field as Germans attacked Russia, and later as Russia counterattacked Germany.
After
the war, Ukraine was stuck behind the “Iron Curtain.” Decades of American children
and eventually President Ronald Reagan celebrated “Captive Nations Day” and
prayed for freedom for Ukraine and other enslaved nations.
In
order to understand why Ukrainians fight with such commitment and valor today,
it is essential to understand the historical hatreds which Ukrainians have for the
madmen that have led Russia over the last century.
Second,
we now turn to modern Ukrainian history. After the Soviet Union collapsed,
Ukraine was suddenly “free” in 1991, but still in the hands of Soviet apparatchiks.
“Freedom” brought new challenges. Ukrainians inherited over 1,000 Russian missiles.
Ukraine sought to make a deal over its missile trove, and worked with the
United States, United Kingdom and Russia.
Negotiations
culminated in the Budapest Memorandum. In 1994, the United States, along
with the UK and Russia, signed the Budapest Memorandum. The United States agreed
to guarantee the territorial integrity of Ukraine, and Ukraine agreed to
surrender its missiles.
No sooner
had the pact been signed, and after Ukraine had complied with its part of the bargain,
the United States began to renege on its commitments, by pretending the Memorandum
was a meaningless document.
When
Tucker Carlson of Fox News today says the United States “has no role in
Ukraine,” he’s lying. The US voluntarily signed the Budapest Memorandum and entered
into a multilateral agreement where Ukraine surrendered missiles and America
agreed to protect Ukraine (though not necessarily with US troops).
Ukraine
has a legal and moral claim on the United States and United Kingdom to honor
the Budapest Memorandum. (See: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/
2022/02/01/what-budapest-memorandum-means-us-ukraine/)
In
2014 Russia violated the Budapest Memorandum when it invaded Ukraine. President
Obama did nothing and ignored the Memorandum. Russia was emboldened by the US/UK’s
failure to respond to aggression and invasion.
Putin
had become the latest Russian dictator by promising Russians economic freedom in
return for their ceding political power to him. By 2022, Putin was just another
mad Russian dictator.
Although the CIA was correct in
predicting that a Russian invasion of Ukraine was imminent, few believed the
evidence of Russian preparations would lead to total war.
But
very quietly, something had changed since the 2014 invasion. After the 2014
debacle, the UK and USA began training the Ukrainian military. The pre-2014 military
operated on the Russian model, committing atrocities as a means of waging war.
Ukrainians began to understand American and British principles of war. They
also added their own unique tactics.
Third,
by the time Russia invaded in 2022, Ukraine’s defenses had radically changed.
Russia did not face the Ukrainian military of 2014 but, rather, a modern Ukrainian
fighting force based on western tactics and strategies.
Everyone
– especially the Russians – believed Ukraine would surrender in a few days. But
Ukrainians repelled the Russian invaders and began to retake territory that Russia
had initially seized. When I went to Kyiv in May, 2022, the recovery operations
were continuing and Ukrainian cities were being liberated. (You can see my 2022
columns at: contrariancommentary.wordpress.com, 2002 archive.)
Once
Ukraine showed that it could defend its territory and defeat the Russians, the military
and political environment changed. The United States created a “pipeline” of weapons
that flows every day into Ukraine. Increasingly deadly US armaments are delivered
across the Polish/Ukrainian border. Supply lines have been established. The US
82nd Airborne Division stands guard.
Ukrainian
troops are being trained in the United States, Britain and across Europe. Most
importantly, the UK and US have created networks of satellite communications to
help Ukrainian soldiers surveil and defeat Russian troops.
Russia’s
invading troops were undisciplined, untrained and poorly equipped. Today, a year
later, vicious battles are being fought and the tide of war – notwithstanding Tucker
Carlson’s pro-Putin propaganda – has turned. Carlson has two disgruntled failed
U S Army lieutenant colonels (Macgregor and Davis) who distort reality and
pretend Russia is winning the war. That is simply not true.
The
“front,” which was far to the west when I arrived in 2022, has now moved eastward
closer to the remaining Russian strongholds.
For my analysis in August, 2022,
please see:
https://youtu.be/gep2Yi3Qad0
Fourth,
we now examine where the war stands today and what I predict for the future.
After
media reports earlier this year that Russia was planning an offensive, there is
now consensus that the Russian “offensive” has stalled. Russia’s terror tactics
and atrocities have failed to defeat Ukraine.
Ukrainian
forces have shown surprising resilience, especially in the defense of Bakhmut,
where Russia has begun to employ “suicide” troops to make advances.
The
American/UK/European “pipeline” of weapons continues to expand Ukrainian
resources. There is also some evidence that Ukrainians are reviving their own
armament industry.
World
War III? The most dramatic term that has animated debate since 2022 is that
allied and Ukrainian opposition to the Russian invasion could trigger World War
III. I argued in 2022 that the current war was the “last battle of World War
II,” delayed by 75 years, not the start of World War III.
I
believe that only President Biden and the US can trigger World War III.
American military aid has been premised on the limitation that Ukraine cannot use
our weapons to launch offensive operations against Russia. This unreasonable American
limitation has made Ukrainians sitting ducks, expanded the misery and death,
and led to the current stalemate.
But
if American aid was withdrawn or delayed or limited, Ukrainians would have no
need to limit their attacks. Ukraine could demolish Russian defenses along the border
and strike Moscow every time Russia attacked Kyiv. Right now, American limits
have created a one-sided war that favors Russia. Russia attacks Ukrainian
territory but Ukraine is prohibited from fighting back by attacking in Russia.
Thus,
Republicans who oppose American aid to Ukraine could inadvertently trigger
World War III by lifting the current restrictions on Ukrainian operations.
When
will the war end? The end will come as a surprise. Wars usually end when no one
expects them to. The Communist Chinese “peace plan” is a joke. On the other hand,
the allied training programs for Ukrainian troops are reaching fruition.
Ukraine will soon have powerful new weapons to deploy. Poland has become a resourceful
ally.
I
continue to believe, as I stated in August, 2022, that if Ukraine seizes
Crimea, Russia will surrender.
In
closing, I hope to return to Ukraine in June or July. I will find a vastly different
situation than I did in 2022. Allied support is much more robust. Ukrainian
morale is higher, notwithstanding reports to the contrary on Tucker Carlson/Fox
News. In my fifty-sixth year of war analysis, I am still going strong.
And
so are the Ukrainians.
---
How Andy Martin Became a Foreign
Policy and Intelligence Expert
Andy has over fifty years of experience in Europe, Asia, Southwest
Asia and the Middle East; he is regarded overseas as one of America’s most
respected independent foreign policy, military and intelligence analysts. He is
known as an “over-the-horizon” expert who synthesizes conditions to prepare
predictive opinions.
Andy’s military experience began at home. His mother and father
fought in WW II and his family has ties to intelligence and irregular military
operations. As an Air Force cadet at the University of Illinois during the Cold
War, his officers schooled him in strategies for bombing the Soviet Union.
In 1965 he became an acolyte of Professor Bernard Fall. Professor
Fall believed that Viet-Nam was a “revolutionary” war, a military campaign
based on nationalist goals that more properly fit the matrix of political
analysis. After Professor Fall was blown up, Andy persevered in studying
counterinsurgency (COIN) in Viet-Nam and around the world. He was hired to provide
confidential analysis in Viet-Nam and throughout Asia. Because of his ability
to “see over the horizon,” his original engagement developed into a lifetime of
independent observation and research through Europe, the Middle East and Asia,
and continues into the present. In 2022 he was in Ukraine.
Andy founded the Revolutionary War Research Center and in 1974 he
began to offer counterterrorism consulting at the World Trade Center in New
York, becoming one of the nation’s first counterterror specialists. Andy was in
New York on September 11, 2001 and rendered assistance.
Andy first went to the Arab world in 1970 and has traveled to
every country in that region. Andy was
in Iran and Afghanistan during the hostage crisis in 1979-80.
He lived
in Iraq in 2003.
His analysis of the terrorist threat in Iran during 1979-80, and
again in Iraq in 2002-2003, were leading-edge predictions of what Americans
faced in the future. In the mid-1990’s Andy helped fight drug gangs and cartels
in Miami.
He has lived in or been in Israel,
Jordan, Libya, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Viet-Nam,
Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Burma, Hong Kong and the United Kingdom.
---
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---
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