The New Face of War in Ukraine: Part One - Conventional Wisdom is Wrong
THE NEW FACE OF WAR IN UKRAINE: PART ONE
United States military and intelligence analyst/investigator Andy Martin told a Kyiv news conference Thursday, May 12 that the Putin-Obama-Biden War represents a “New Face of War.” Andy believes the conventional wisdom about the status of Putin’s war-making potential is mistaken, and that aid approved by Congress and signed by the President will demolish Russian forces by Christmas. “Russian leaders, who exist in a bubble, have no idea what is about to hit the invaders in Ukraine,” Andy says. Andy, who has worked in Washington for many decades, is also a New Hampshire, Republican U. S. Senate candidate.
(Editor’s note: This report was originally prepared on May 12. But because of the need to go “in the field” for firsthand observation, final editing and posting were delayed. Therefore, you may see observations about battles and war progress taking place after May 12.)
NEWS FROM:
CONTRARIAN COMMENTARY
Global News and Commentary
London, New York, Washington
“The Internet Powerhouse”
Andy Martin, J.D.
Adjunct Professor of Law
Executive Editor and Producer
One of America’s most respected
independent intelligence analysts
and military investigators
“Journalism that is factually correct,
not politically correct”
Contact:
andymart20@aol.com
Blogs:
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(Kyiv, Ukraine)(May 12, 2022)
1. Before the start of the war
It is hard to find Ukrainians outside the government who believed Russia would invade. Putin’s saber-rattling was thought to be just that, rattling. Life in Kyiv was stressed but close to normal. The world changed on February 24th.
Dictator (not “president”) Putin has said the collapse of the Soviet Union was a great geopolitical tragedy. Putin's invasion of Ukraine will eventually lead to the collapse of Russia and its remaining empire. The hatred and bitterness against Russia you find in Ukraine will not disappear for decades. Putin has destroyed Russia’s future. Ukraine will recover and rebuild. Putin will not survive the loss of McDonald's. Hundreds of thousands of young Russians have abandoned their country. Few will return.
So where does that leave the war, what I call “the new face of war.”
Few knew what would happen if shooting actually started. (U. S. and especially UK intelligence did believe that Russia was about to attack; American and British troops training Ukrainians were withdrawn so they would not be caught in the line of fire.)
But, really, no one was paying attention to the Ukrainian forces of 2022; observers were focused on reminiscences of Russia’s attack in 2014. The “conventional wisdom” was that Ukraine would collapse and submit to control by Russia. “Surrender” is certainly what the “bubble” inside the Kremlin expected.
2. During the early phase of the war
Once the Russian invasion actually began, the conventional wisdom was that Ukraine would collapse and Russian soldiers would be in Kyiv in days. This “wisdom” was buttressed in American media (including Fox News) by endless use of Russian propaganda film, with illegible disclaimers on screen showing the source of the bombastic pictures (Russia). The media’s presentation was all an illusion, having no connection to actual conditions on the ground. Why US media were presenting Russian disinformation I leave for you to decide.
Remember the “40-mile convoy of Russian tanks and trucks” that was going to encircle Kyiv? Destroyed by Ukrainian forces using British Nlaw weapons (developed by Britain jointly with Sweden, and manufactured in the UK). Ukrainians also received a clandestine boost from partisans in Belarus, who sabotaged Russian train lines into Ukraine.
The initial Russian air attacks were formidable, but soon tapered off as Ukrainian defenses developed familiarity.
Who benefited the Russians the most (apart from Putin's banker, Germany)? Initially Joe Biden refused to let Poland transfer old Migs to Ukraine; Biden tried to slow-walk shipments of weapons. Sleepy old Joe Biden's dithering last year had probably encouraged Putin to believe there would be no allied response to an invasion. (Biden apparently didn’t believe the CIA’s predictions of imminent hostilities.)
Ukrainian forces gradually began to receive more weapons, from both the US and UK. The war was real, not a video game. The tide imperceptibly shifted. Because of utterly horrible scenes such as Mariupol and Bucha, global public opinion also shifted.
British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace was keenly aware of the shift; he knew Ukrainians were turning back the “Soviet” attack. UK advisers were the first to return to Ukraine. British battlefield intelligence has consistently been the best. The seamless intelligence and coordination between the allies has stunned the Russians and encouraged other nations to join the coalition.
Casualties on both sides have been the worst since WW II. Russian troops brutally slaughtered their “brothers,” that they had ostensibly gone in to save. In defending their homes, Ukrainian forces devastated the worthless Russian army. Tens of thousands of Russians have perished or been grievously wounded. There are reports Russian officers have shot their own troops.
3. The current status of the conflict
Conventional wisdom still remains tilted in favor of some sort of Russian “victory,” especially along the Black Sea.
Even today, as this updated review is being published, the conventional weltanschauung is that Russia will somehow prevail. The conventional wisdom can’t accept the lightening changes on the battlefield.
This change in Ukrainian defense posture comes before the arrival of billions of dollars of new U S military supplies. Every few hours, around-the-clock, U S airplanes are landing in Poland with new weapons and ammunition for transfer to Ukraine. While Great Britain and some European countries have been superb with their support, no one can match the massive potential of American military aid.
In the days ahead, weapons will be pouring into Ukraine at a pace not seen since the Normandy landing in 1944. These weapons will all be focused on a tiny area of land where Russian troops will face this onslaught of firepower.
4. The New Face of War
As I said at my news conference, conventional wisdom is always looking backward. The armchair generals on CNN, MSNBC and Fox are retired officers who served in a very different military environment.
In the context of a Cold War confrontation, Russian forces looked formidable years ago. But that was then. Ukraine is now.
While every military has “cheated” by reducing defense expenditures, to the point where nations such as Germany have unilaterally disarmed from their robust posture decades ago, the Russian disarmament has been the most devastating. While Russia has a formidable nuclear arsenal, Soviet conventional forces, which have not faced a determined foe since 1945, are completely out of date. Russian bulwarks of the Cold War, such as Polish and Ukrainian troops, are long gone. They are now on the other side.
So what is the “new face” of war? Mobility, mobility, mobility. A Ukrainian force last week obliterated an entire Russian armored convoy, with massive loss of life. Russian air operations are virtually suspended, now that Ukrainian air defenses are being augmented. Russian missiles are still being fired, but for how long?
New weapons being used today may spell the end of armored divisions in the future (tanks) and enhance support for artillery units. Drones? The new masters of the battlefield. US defense posture will have to be reviewed.
The armchair generals of American media have no idea what is actually happening in combat. Instead, they orchestrate colorful maps which do not convey the dynamic conflict of today. Who predicted Ukrainian troops would have already pushed a salient all the way back to the Russian-Ukrainian border? No one. Who predicted the liberation of Kharkiv? (I did, but not in published comments.) No one.
What I initially found strange was the use of missiles by Russia, but then no genuine follow-up with troops on the ground to seize territory (some land has been seized, but nothing comparable to what was initially predicted). The Donbas is still contested. A handful of Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol delayed Russian advances for weeks.
While Ukrainians are still “defending” against a Russian attack, my view of the battlefield is radically different than the conventional wisdom.
My reporting indicates that some time around July 4th (nice day, that) Ukrainians will launch their “liberation” operation to reclaim territory stolen by Russia in 2014.
Having looked at the actual battlefield, and not the TV maps on American cable channels, I do not believe the Russian invasion is sustainable beyond the end of the year, if that long. Ukraine’s intelligence chief may have been listening in on my phone. I have been telling people the end of the year may bring the end of the war. Last week the chief intelligence officer agreed. (President Zelensky has not adopted a date, but he really can’t.)
And the weapons? America and Britain are rearming. New weapons are being produced. Poland has become our closest ally, the new capital of Europe. Sweden and Finland? Don’t mess with their militaries. Other nations are joining; they do not want to be left behind.
Putin, the incompetent “wartime leader,” is reputed to have taken control of operations in Ukraine, a disaster for Russian troops.
I completely reject the conventional wisdom. If I have to choose between Russian draftees equipped with Soviet era weaponry, and Ukrainian Freedom Fighters equipped with the latest in British, American (and even Turkish) weapons, count me unabashedly on the side of Ukraine.
From Kyiv, the capital of a free Ukraine.
CONTRARIAN COMMENTARY
Rédacteur en Chef,
Andy Martin
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Other web sites for Andy Martin:
www.AndyMartinforUSSenator.com
www.AndyMartin.com
www.FirstRespondersOnline.us
ANDY MARTIN - A BRIEF BIO:
Andy Martin is a legendary New Hampshire, United States-based muckraker, author, Internet columnist, talk television pioneer, radio talk show host, broadcaster and media critic. With over fifty (50) years of background in radio and television and with decades of intelligence, investigative and analytical experience in Washington, the USA and around the world, Andy provides insight on politics, foreign policy, military and intelligence matters. For a full bio, go to: www.AndyMartin.com. See also www.FirstRespondersOnline.us; www.BoycottABC.com/executive_director.htm
Andy holds both Economics and Juris Doctor degrees from the University of Illinois and is a former adjunct professor of law at the City University of New York (LaGuardia CC, Bronx CC).
He is the author of “Obama: The Man Behind the Mask” [www.OrangeStatePress.com] and produced the Internet film “Obama: The Hawaii’ Years” [www.BoycottHawaii.com]. Andy is the Executive Editor and publisher of the “Internet Powerhouse,” blogging at www.contrariancommentary.wordpress.com and www.ContrarianCommentary.com.
Andy’s family immigrated to Manchester, New Hampshire over 100 years ago; today he is New Hampshire’s leading corruption fighter and Republican Party reformer.
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